Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has a lot on his mind these days, from cutting the defense budget to managing the drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. But his biggest worry is the growing possibility that Israel will attack Iran over the next few months.

The organizers of the World Economic Forum were self-critical enough to organize panels this year on such dark topics as “Is Capitalism Failing?” and “Global Risks 2012: The Seeds of Dystopia.” And these were just the latest in a series of annual ruminations here on the troubles of the globalization movement the conference symbolizes.

It was 30 years ago that Tewfik Mishlawi confessed what might sound like a mundane ambition but which contained the sublime spark that has swept across the Middle East over the past year: He said that he wanted to create the first independent Arab news service.

The Chinese cut their imports from Iran roughly in half for January, trimming 285,000 barrels per day from their average last year of about 550,000 barrels per day, according to Nat Kern, the publisher of Foreign Reports, a respected industry newsletter.

This was a year in which events rarely turned out as predicted and when much of the world seemed shrouded in turmoil and uncertainty. It was difficult for government analysts back in Washington to know just where they were on the map, let alone where they were heading.

It’s a few days before Christmas, and Staff Sgt. Andre Vappie is showing pictures of himself dressed in a red suit for the “Santa Claus 5K Run” that took place a few weeks ago at the U.S. military base here. As he scrolls through the photos, you can see at least 50 other guys in Santa suits celebrating the holiday season in this muscular way, far from home.

Gen. John Allen insists there is “no daylight” between him and President Obama about policy for continued troop withdrawals from Afghanistan next year. That may be technically true, but a political battle is brewing over the future pace of the U.S. military drawdown here.

Spring is a distant memory now, including here in the Arab world. It’s harvest time, and people give thanks for what they’ve reaped in the hope that it will carry them through the long and chilly months ahead.

On a main boulevard here is a forbidding building, shaped like an inverted pyramid, where the Interior Ministry has its headquarters. It’s a place that scares Saudi liberals, cheers conservatives and symbolizes the tightly controlled security of the kingdom. It’s also the home base of Saudi Arabia’s new crown prince and likely future king, Nayef bin Abdul-Aziz.

Over this year of Arab Spring revolt, Saudi Arabia has increasingly replaced the United States as the key status-quo power in the Middle East — a role that seems likely to expand even more in coming years as the Saudis boost their military and economic spending.

The leading Republican candidates were weirdly overt with their promises in last weekend’s debate about waging covert war against Iran and even assassinating its scientists. Perhaps it’s a sign that foreigners don’t take U.S. politics very seriously, but the inflammatory talk created barely a ripple in this part of the world.

Coptic Christians are worried about their future in the new Egypt, as I could see Thursday night at a political rally in a poor Coptic neighborhood known here as Garbage City.

Gathered in an alleyway framed by heaps of trash, and Christian symbols decorating every nearby wall, the residents heard a simple message: To protect their families, Christians must vote in the parliamentary elections that begin late this month. Otherwise, Egypt may be controlled by the Muslim Brotherhood, which is mobilizing its own supporters.

How has life changed in Egypt since the revolution, and what’s going to happen in the parliamentary elections that begin this month? I asked those questions last week in a poor neighborhood of Cairo called Ain el-Sira, and the responses amounted to a warning: The new Egypt must give these people a sense of security and progress soon, or it’s in trouble.

Diplomatic versions of the three-cushion shot in billiards are perilous, but let’s suppose you could accomplish the following: Lift the stature of Egypt’s fragile transitional government, support Israel’s desire for Arab recognition, reanimate the Palestinian peace process and deal a blow to Iran.

One answer would be to establish deterrence in the long war against Islamic extremism, like the standoff that developed between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The Soviets were obviously a far bigger adversary, but the basic logic is the same: Both sides have deadly weapons, but if you don’t shoot at us, we won’t shoot at you.

Obama’s leadership style — and the continuity of his national security policies with those of his predecessor, George W. Bush — has left friends and foes scratching their heads. What has become of the “change we can believe in” style he showed as a candidate? The answer may be that he has disappeared into the secret world of the post-Sept. 11 presidency.